The big era of LED lighting in 2014 is coming. Huang Panpan, a researcher at Orient Securities, made no secret of the turning point in the LED industry, profit improvement, and accelerated policy catalysis. In 2014, the industry's prosperity and expansion confidence will continue to rise, and the industry's growth rate is expected to grow at a high rate.
The industry has fully recovered 60% to achieve profitability. Multi-faceted information shows that the LED industry has encountered an inflection point in 2013. In 2012, LED is almost a loss-making situation in the whole industry. Last year, it has changed a lot. Many companies have good news of profit, which indicates LED downstream. The strong demand for lighting has been transmitted to midstream and upstream packaging and chip companies.
According to incomplete statistics, as of March 19, a total of 43 A-shares of 53 LED concept stocks announced their 2013 annual report or performance report, and 31 of them, over 60%, achieved profitability last year.
Huang Panpan pointed out that the focus of the industry's recovery is reflected in five aspects: First, the lowest price difference between LED and energy-saving lamps is nearly doubled; second: the number of sweet spot products is increasing rapidly; third: demand enters a stage of high elastic growth. Demand for price sensitivity has increased significantly; Fourth: LED lighting application output value will be equivalent to the backlight, is expected to reach 40 or more; Fifth: 2014 price decline is relatively limited, a single quarter fell within 5. From a financial perspective, the industry's profitability continues to improve, and gross margin is expected to gradually stabilize. From the policy point of view, in 2014, the world entered the second wave of incandescent lamps banned peak period, accelerating the promotion of LED lighting related products.
Profit transfer industry chain companies have a clear prospect for recovery in the industry. A brokerage researcher pointed out that the order of benefits for LED industry companies is from downstream demand, then to the midstream of the industry, and then to the upstream chip field.
In fact, from the perspective of the industrial chain, benefiting from the strong market demand for lighting in the second half of last year, downstream lighting, applications and other related companies have basically made a full profit. According to relevant data of the annual report, the downstream profitability has been transmitted to the midstream package and upstream chip companies.
In the context of the industry as a whole, a number of listed companies have indicated that they will increase investment.
In the 2013 annual report, Wanrun Technology revealed that the company will further explore the overseas high-end lighting products market in the United States, Canada, the European Union and other countries, and deepen and expand the domestic high-end lighting market. At the same time, we will increase investment in R&D expenditures, enrich the company's existing product lines, and provide customers with diversified alternatives.
In the mid-stream packaging company Hongli Optoelectronics, the company also said that the company's current LED packaging products capacity is around 800 KK / month, in 2014, according to the original expansion plan, combined with market conditions to expand capacity.
The trend of industry mergers and acquisitions surges and the performance of the LED market will continue throughout 2014. Ping Antian, an analyst at Ping An Securities, believes that in the context of lighting volume and rapid growth in demand, many companies will usher in a double turning point in revenue and profit margins. Judging from the situation of industrial chain research, many LED companies have the demand for mergers and acquisitions and refinancing this year. Since the profit base of second- and third-line LED companies is generally not high, the corresponding performance elasticity is very large.
According to relevant statistics, there were more than a dozen events in the LED industry in 2013, involving 11 listed companies, including 8 applications for packaging applications, mainly in product structure expansion and product application areas. The extension to the industrial chain is mainly to further extend the application of the packaging application to downstream applications or channels.
In fact, as early as February 22, Zhongjing Electronics also announced that it plans to acquire the equity of LED Enterprise Founder Group for 286 million yuan and enter the LED lighting field. Its plan was popular in the market, and the stock closed for seven consecutive daily limit. On March 12, Foshan Lighting announced that the company plans to acquire a LED company called Suzhou Mengtai Libao Photoelectric Co., Ltd., which focuses on the development and production of LED commercial lighting products and engineering products, despite the company’s production management and The problem of insufficient capacity is still at a loss.
Institutional Intensive Research Interventions Waiting for Opportunity It is worth mentioning that this year, some key companies in the LED industry have received special attention from the organization.
According to incomplete statistics, in the past two months, there have been hundreds of institutions in the industry, such as Foshan Lighting, Alto Electronics, Guoxing Optoelectronics, Liard, Lianjian Optoelectronics, Hongli Optoelectronics, Huacan Optoelectronics, etc. The company has conducted nearly 30 researches.
Mr. Chen, a director of private equity fund investment in Shanghai, is very optimistic about the LED industry. He researched ten LED listed companies at the beginning of the year and based on the survey results, he overscores key companies such as Huacan Optoelectronics and Guoxing Optoelectronics.
The LED industry should be completely optimistic in the first half of the year. I will hold positions until the semi-annual report is announced. In the second half of the year, we will decide whether to increase or decrease the configuration depending on the specific conditions of the market. Mr. Chen said.
However, at present, after the previous speculation, the relevant stocks of the LED concept have risen far more than the same period of the market index, not the time of intervention, and waiting for them to fall back by 20% is a good time to intervene. Mr. Chen said.
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