2. Gravity charges are an important factor in the revolutionary changes in heavy truck sales
China began to implement weight-based toll collection in 2003. Starting from 2006, weight-based charges began to be fully promoted in China. We can see from Figure 1 that sales volume of heavy-duty trucks in 2006 and 2007 increased after weight-based tolls were implemented in a wide range across the country. Reached 29.5% and 58.6% respectively.
According to the international general classification, the real heavy truck is a product with a load of 15 tons or more. However, since China has defined the classification of heavy trucks with a total mass of trucks of more than 14 tons instead of using the truck’s actual load capacity as a critical point, the sales of trucks with 8-15 tons of trucks are usually calculated during heavy truck sales statistics. In the meantime, loads of 8 to 15 tons can only be counted as quasi heavy trucks. Correspondingly, heavy trucks have been categorized as standard heavy trucks and quasi heavy trucks.
We learned that China Heavy Duty Truck, Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck, Beiqi Foton, SAIC Hongyan and Beifang Mercedes-Benz are mainly engaged in the production of heavy trucks with a capacity of over 15 tons and FAW Group and Dongfeng Motor, two major manufacturers of heavy trucks. We can clearly see that the market share of heavy trucks carrying more than 15 tons of load has increased significantly from the changes in the market share of these depots in the heavy truck market.
Although there is no authoritative organization in the country to collect statistics on heavy trucks and heavy trucks with a load of more than 15 tons, we believe that this data will play a very important role in judging the direction of our industry development. We try to restore this data according to what we think is true. According to the actual data we have at hand and some of the information we have learned after communicating with the listed company, we make assumptions about the conditions for the sale of heavy trucks according to the conditions listed in Table 3, and based on the assumptions, we make a statistical chart of heavy card sales classification.
According to the assumptions listed in Table 3, we have made heavy truck sales data after classification in recent years. Heavy trucks with a load of over 15 tons began to enter the domestic market in 2004, followed by a rapid increase in sales of heavy trucks with a load of over 15 tons in 2006 and 2007. . Although the accuracy of the data sources for our mapping remains to be explored, we believe that these data should fully reflect the trend of heavy truck sales.
According to our statistics, the sales growth of quasi-heavy trucks in China in 2006 and 2007 was 6.2% and 25.8%, respectively, while the sales growth of real heavy trucks was 67.0% and 93.4%, respectively, which meant that the weight-based charges affected the heavy truck industry. The main impact is heavy trucks with a load of over 15 tons, and this effect was very strong in 2006 and 2007.
So why is weight-based charging having such a big impact? We can clearly discover the mystery of the detailed and detailed analysis of the impact of weight-based charges on the industry.
The standard for toll-by-weight shall be so stipulated that the gross weight of the goods exceeds 30% of the standard for identifying the corresponding road carrying capacity of the vehicle, and the fee shall be charged at the normal basic rate, and the excess weight shall be increased linearly by 3 times of the basic rate in part above 30%. Up to 5 times the weight of the vehicle toll.
We will elaborate on this standard by giving concrete examples.
Chengya Baijia Station--DaYi BaiJie Station is 437 kilometers in length. We measure the toll-by-weight on this section of highway. We found that when the truck with a maximum load of 17 tons actually exceeds 25 tons, it will be overloaded. The amount of fines paid was as high as 272 yuan.
We know that prior to the implementation of toll-by-weight charges, the phenomenon of overloading trucks by 100% is very common. The average annual mileage of a long-distance truck is between 200,000 and 250,000 kilometers. We assume that 70,000 kilometers of trucks are based on toll-by-weight. Running on the road, if the car's total rated weight is 17 tons, but due to overloading its total weight to 25 tons, then the car's one-year penalty will be as high as 43600 yuan, if the total weight after overload reaches 30 tons, then the car One year's fine will reach 141,600 yuan.
We have seen a heavy-duty Yellow River series heavy truck with a total mass of 14 tons to 19 tons, which sells for 162,300 yuan, while the maximum total mass is more than 25 tons of Steyr heavy trucks, and its price is only 200,000. Around, so in the face of high fines, heavy truck sales structure is also a very normal phenomenon.
3. High oil prices make this change more violent
Some experts have done such statistics. Taking a 10-ton small truck and a 40-ton truck as an example, they run the same route. They also carry 40 tons of cargo, four trucks using 10 tons of trucks, and one truck with 40 tons of trucks. In terms of fuel consumption, the comprehensive fuel consumption of the 10-ton truck is 20 litres/hundred kilometers, with an average fuel consumption of 2 liters per 100 kilometers per ton. The combined fuel consumption of a 40-ton heavy truck is about 40 liters/hundred kilometers, with an average fuel consumption of 1 liter per 100 kilometers per ton. Compared to the 10-ton truck, the 40-ton truck weighs less than 1 litre/hundred kilograms per ton of fuel consumption on fuel consumption, saving 50%.
The soaring oil price has turned the trucks into heavy ones even more violently. At present, China's 0# diesel price is 4.7 yuan / liter, a true heavy truck average fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is about 30 liters, according to one year exercise mileage of 200,000 kilometers, its annual fuel consumption is 60,000 liters, The amount of oil consumed in one year reached 280,000 yuan. If you use an ordinary truck, then the amount you need for fuel consumption may be as high as 400,000 yuan per year without overloading.
Because trucks will be heavily penalized for overloading, and they will not be able to withstand such high oil prices without overloading, the shift in truck sales to heavy-duty has been so fierce, and it has been so reasonable.
4. Demand for replacement of ordinary trucks makes rigid consumption of heavy trucks appear rigid
From the point of view of truck demand, truck consumption is mainly focused on the demand for transfer. From the data above, we can see that more than 60% of the annual demand for trucks is caused by the demand for transfer. In other words, that is to say, due to the very high base of truck ownership in our country, more than 850,000 trucks will need to be replaced each year in the future, and we believe that this replacement demand is also relatively rigid.
Due to the implementation of toll-by-weight fees and pressure from high oil prices, the medium- and heavy-duty trucks that have entered the scrapping period will be forced to change to heavy trucks with a load of more than 15 tons, and we believe this trend is long-term and will continue for the next five years. No change will happen.
5. The demand for self-replacement of heavy-duty trucks with capacity of >15 tons will appear in large numbers in 2008 and 2009
We learned that when heavy trucks are used for more than one million kilometers, they need to start major repairs, and long-distance transportation requires relatively high truck performance. Therefore, when heavy trucks are used for 1 million kilometers, the owners will begin to consider changing cars. At present, a heavy-duty truck has an annual mileage of 20-25 million kilometers, which means that after using 4- to 5-years, the heavy truck will enter the transfer cycle.
In 2004, the heavy truck with a load of over 15 tons began to enter the domestic market in a scale. From the statistical data, we can see that the heavy truck consumption with a domestic load of over 15 tons is still based on the first consumption. As the heavy trucks sold in 2003 and 2004 will be integrated into the scrapping period in 2008, we assume that 25% of the standard heavy trucks sold in 2004 will be scrapped in 2008, then 30,000 replacements will be generated, and these requirements will account for only By 2007, 10.2% of standard heavy truck sales.
The emergence of update demand in 2008 and 2009 will undoubtedly provide strong support for sales of heavy trucks with a load of more than 15 tons.
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