Although trucks (trucks) are hit hard by the rise in raw material prices, due to their strong cost-shifting capabilities, the total production and sales volume of trucks still maintains rapid growth. Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report a few days ago that demand for trucks remains bullish.
Truck growth is still fast
At present, the proportion of trucks in the total amount of automobiles is far lower than that of passenger vehicles. However, the difference between the characteristics of small vehicles and passenger vehicles is that they are high value-added as investment products, and they also show full momentum of full-scale sales.
Of course, like passenger cars, with the strengthening of macro-control and the continuous expansion of the base, the growth rate of trucks (including semitrailer tractors) will also slow down.
In 2008, along with the sustained and rapid development of the national economy, trucks as investment goods (including semi-trailer tractors) still maintained a good momentum of development, with a year-on-year growth of 19.19% and a slight decrease of 0.78 percentage points. The sales increased by 26.66% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 5.55 percentage points. The production-sales ratio was 100.22%, an increase of 5.91 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, heavy-duty trucks and chassis are the main driving forces driving the rapid development of the entire truck-car industry. In the first quarter of 2008, the sales growth of heavy-duty trucks (including chassis and semi-trailer tractors) reached 58.70%, although semi- The growth rate of tractors has dropped significantly, but it still maintains a rapid growth of 46.85%, and its heavy-duty cargo chassis constitutes the main force driving the growth of heavy-duty vehicles.
Double pressure can be slightly shifted
At present, the trucks (including semi-trailer tractors) are mainly faced with two major cost pressures: one is the cost pressure caused by the continuous rise in prices of raw materials such as steel, and the other is the cost pressure brought about by the implementation of State III emission standards.
The leading manufacturers in the industry can take the lead in price increase. For example, Foton Motor's full range of products will increase its price by 2,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan, digesting 80% of the cost pressure. Dongfeng Motor also made 2%~3% of its trucks. The rate of price increase to test the market's response.
Given that trucks (including semi-trailer tractors) are basically powered by diesel engines, diesel engines currently use the high-pressure common rail fuel injection system to meet the national III emission standards, and their price and engine displacement are not large. Linked, so for heavy vehicles with relatively high prices, their assessment/ability to bear is significantly stronger than that of light vehicles.
However, due to the current domestic fuel oil products, the relevant state departments may postpone the implementation of the relevant emission standards, and with the establishment of a fuel injection system company in Wuhan, such as Cummins Inc., will break Bosch's monopoly in this area and future competition. The increase is beneficial to vehicle manufacturers.
List of related listed companies
Weichai Power: Weichai Power currently has the comprehensive production capacity of key components such as large and medium-duty vehicles, diesel engines for construction machinery, medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and chassis, gear transmissions, etc. Therefore, it has a strong ability to withstand risks.
China National Heavy Duty Truck: In 2007, the production and sales of Sinotruk maintained a rapid growth, and the main business revenue increased by more than 80% year-on-year. However, the quarterly data show that the company's operations are subject to regular fluctuations, generally rapid in the first half of the year, and even negative growth in the third quarter, which is a typical high and low trend. In addition, due to increased cost pressures and intensified market competition, the primary profit margin in the first quarter of 2008 was only 6.16%, which was a substantial decline from 2007.
Foton Motor: It mainly develops, manufactures, and sells trucks, semi-trailer tractors, passenger cars, and sport utility vehicles (SUVs). Judging from the main composition of Foton Motors, cargo-carrying vehicles are still the focus of the company, and along with the gradual upgrading of products, the growth rate of the company's main business income (44.29%) is faster than the production and sales volume (19.99%). The increase rate indicates that the adjustment of the product structure of the company began to see results.
Jiangling Motors: Mainly produces and sells light vehicles and their parts and components. The main products include the JMC series light cars and Pickup/SUV vehicles as well as the "Quanshun" series of commercial vehicles; in addition, they also produce engines, castings and other components. In recent years, the production and sales of Jiangling Motors has continuously set a record in history. At the same time, through the adjustment of product structure, the compression of costs, and the strengthening of marketing management, the company's operations have steadily improved. However, as competitors continue to advance, so the market share of Jiangling Motors has shown a gradual decline in the trend, indicating that companies are facing increasing market competition pressure.
Dongfeng Motor: Mainly engaged in the development, design, production and sales of light vehicles (including trucks, SUVs and Pickup models, etc.), automotive engines, their parts and components, and castings.
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