Looking back at the Chinese PV industry in 2007, the “winter†in the prediction does not seem to come.
China's photovoltaic industry is undoubtedly the exception of the world's photovoltaic industry. There is no output of upstream raw materials, lack of support from the domestic market, but the output of solar cells surpass that of the United States, only after Japan and Germany, and a world-class photovoltaic company such as Wuxi Suntech has also been born.
A few years ago, Shi Zhengrong almost started the photovoltaic industry in China, and almost overnight, many domestic companies began to gamble on solar energy. With the huge demand from foreign countries and the stimulating profits, many domestic companies scramble to launch polysilicon projects. Local governments are waving their flags. This can not help reminding people of the “refining steelâ€.
According to the China Industry News reporter's report on the polysilicon capacity planning statistics issued by 14 large-scale enterprises in China last year, the total polysilicon production capacity in China will reach more than 67,260 tons by 2010, and the total investment will exceed 43.5 billion yuan. In July last year, a media reported that the total capacity of polysilicon projects under construction and preparation in China was close to 90,000 tons.
"Predicting the growth of the photovoltaic industry is a dangerous thing. Looking back, the results are often very ridiculous." A securities research institute wrote in its report on the photovoltaic industry in 2007 that from the predictions of the past few years, although experts We are constantly raising expectations, but we still underestimate the growth of the market. The solar cell market may have reached a "tipping point," and unpredictable explosive growth will occur and continue to exceed people's expectations. Perhaps, by 2010, today’s predictions will be quite ridiculous.
**Corporate articles**
Older companies consolidate the market The China Industry News reporter found in the statistics that, as a representative of the Silicon Valley Semiconductor Materials Factory (Hebei Semiconductor Co., Ltd.) and Luoyang China Silicon High-Tech Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Luoyang Zhongsi), there are a few local intellectual property technologies. Institutions and enterprises have both announced significant expansion plans last year.
The 2,000-ton poly silicon project in Luoyang has been laid in Luoyang New District Science Park, and it is planned to be completed and put into production in 2008. Handan Semiconductor has set a three-year rolling development plan: to improve the 200-ton/year polysilicon production line technology process system; to step up construction of a 3×1,500-ton/year polysilicon production line; to plan the construction of a 10,000-ton polysilicon project. With certain technological advantages and industry status, these two companies will still dominate the upstream market of China's photovoltaic industry in the short to medium term.
Leading the industry into the upstream The rapid expansion of Sichuan Xinguang Silicon High-tech Co., Ltd. is undoubtedly an important pawn for Baoding Tianwei trying to get through the entire PV industry chain. The groundbreaking of the Asia Silicon Industry Qinghai Project is a new force for Wuxi Suntech Power Co., Ltd. to further ensure the stable supply of silicon raw materials in the future.
The relatively stable supply of polysilicon is certainly a guarantee for the development of these leading companies. However, in the pyramid-type photovoltaic industry chain, the upper reaches of the high profit margins and technological command may be their real purpose.
The cross-industry investment has been divided into Tongwei Group, which is a leading company in the feed and clothing industry, and Jiangsu Sunshine Co., Ltd. This time, the gambling of polysilicon projects has caused reverie.
The entry of Aerospace, CSG, Jiangsu Glass, Jiangsu Shunda, Yunnan Aisin Silicon, Sichuan Chaolei, and Linghai Jinhua are all relying on their own part of the new energy industry as the basis for innovation and industrialization. The field has a share.
**Technical articles**
The supply bottleneck of polysilicon for new projects is mostly secondary smelting. The purification technology has a high threshold and large investment, and has long been in the hands of 10 factories in 7 companies in the United States, Japan, and Germany. At present, the most mature purification process is the Siemens process, but this method requires the maintenance of polysilicon to maintain a high temperature of 1100 degrees Celsius, consumes large amounts of electricity, and costs remain high.
The China Industry News reporter found that China plans to build new polysilicon projects mostly for the introduction of foreign (Russia) second-rate technology, which will certainly lay the hidden dangers for future product quality and market competition.
Among the numerous companies that have independently developed R&D, they only have R&S Semiconductor and Luoyang Silicon own proprietary purification technology. They achieved certain independent innovation on the basis of the early introduction of Siemens' improved technology from Russia, and gradually achieved a production capacity of 1,000 tons. China's polysilicon production from 60 tons in 2004 to 180 tons in 2005, and then to 300 tons in 2006, almost all attributed to the two companies. Perhaps their development, to a certain extent, can truly reflect the growth of China's photovoltaic industry.
The new technology deserves attention. Henan Xun Tianyu Technology Co., Ltd. is worthy of attention. The company's project uses the physical method purification technology independently developed by the Shanghai Institute of Technical Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. On July 27, 2007, the Shanghai Institute of Technical Physics announced that it has produced more than 99.9999% pure solar cell silicon products by physical purification. The power consumption and water consumption are only 1/3 and 1/10 of the “Siemens Chemical Method†respectively. .
In addition, fluidized bed method, direct smelting method, gas-liquid deposition method, and some amorphous silicon technologies (thin film batteries) have been gradually applied. It should not be overlooked that these relatively inexpensive new technologies will replace the existing technologies on a large scale, and some domestic high-cost manufacturers will no doubt bear the brunt of it.
**Product reviews**
The raw materials crisis is expected to ease the statistics and show that most new construction projects will be put into production from 2008 to 2009. If it is successfully put into production, it will certainly help alleviate the current global polysilicon raw material crisis.
However, it is foreseeable that the lifting of the crisis is limited to some dominant companies. In fact, the existing polysilicon expansion project has basically been locked by orders from downstream companies, while polysilicon manufacturers have only selected the most advantageous companies in the industry to sign their orders.
Moreover, relative to the total capacity of photovoltaic cells, the supply of polysilicon raw materials is still insufficient, and its spot market will remain high. In addition, if there are signs of a rapid decline, some previously announced expansion plans are likely to be cancelled or postponed, thereby supporting prices.
Therefore, weak PV companies still face enormous cost pressures. It is not difficult to predict that in the next few years, the photovoltaic industry will have a process of scouring the sand. The stronger the stronger, the weaker will be swallowed or eliminated.
The actual production capacity will drastically shrink. The excess planning does not equal the actual excess production capacity. According to statistics from the China Industry News reporter on these 14 companies, the total polysilicon production capacity in China will reach more than 67,260 tons before 2010. However, according to the results of the project feasibility statistics PV News, the results show that by 2010 China's polysilicon potential production capacity of 22,100 tons, the actual production capacity may be only 7,300 tons.
The reason is that China will hardly break through the technical barriers to polysilicon purification in the short term, and there will be relatively cheap polysilicon production technology to replace the Siemens law. Second, whether China has sufficient human resources supply is also questionable.
Therefore, only those projects that have a reliable source of technology or long-term technology accumulation will eventually be put into operation. Most of the projects with unclear sources of technology will die halfway, and they will even stay in the sketch stage forever. The situation of excess capacity is also unlikely to occur.
China's photovoltaic industry is undoubtedly the exception of the world's photovoltaic industry. There is no output of upstream raw materials, lack of support from the domestic market, but the output of solar cells surpass that of the United States, only after Japan and Germany, and a world-class photovoltaic company such as Wuxi Suntech has also been born.
A few years ago, Shi Zhengrong almost started the photovoltaic industry in China, and almost overnight, many domestic companies began to gamble on solar energy. With the huge demand from foreign countries and the stimulating profits, many domestic companies scramble to launch polysilicon projects. Local governments are waving their flags. This can not help reminding people of the “refining steelâ€.
According to the China Industry News reporter's report on the polysilicon capacity planning statistics issued by 14 large-scale enterprises in China last year, the total polysilicon production capacity in China will reach more than 67,260 tons by 2010, and the total investment will exceed 43.5 billion yuan. In July last year, a media reported that the total capacity of polysilicon projects under construction and preparation in China was close to 90,000 tons.
"Predicting the growth of the photovoltaic industry is a dangerous thing. Looking back, the results are often very ridiculous." A securities research institute wrote in its report on the photovoltaic industry in 2007 that from the predictions of the past few years, although experts We are constantly raising expectations, but we still underestimate the growth of the market. The solar cell market may have reached a "tipping point," and unpredictable explosive growth will occur and continue to exceed people's expectations. Perhaps, by 2010, today’s predictions will be quite ridiculous.
**Corporate articles**
Older companies consolidate the market The China Industry News reporter found in the statistics that, as a representative of the Silicon Valley Semiconductor Materials Factory (Hebei Semiconductor Co., Ltd.) and Luoyang China Silicon High-Tech Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Luoyang Zhongsi), there are a few local intellectual property technologies. Institutions and enterprises have both announced significant expansion plans last year.
The 2,000-ton poly silicon project in Luoyang has been laid in Luoyang New District Science Park, and it is planned to be completed and put into production in 2008. Handan Semiconductor has set a three-year rolling development plan: to improve the 200-ton/year polysilicon production line technology process system; to step up construction of a 3×1,500-ton/year polysilicon production line; to plan the construction of a 10,000-ton polysilicon project. With certain technological advantages and industry status, these two companies will still dominate the upstream market of China's photovoltaic industry in the short to medium term.
Leading the industry into the upstream The rapid expansion of Sichuan Xinguang Silicon High-tech Co., Ltd. is undoubtedly an important pawn for Baoding Tianwei trying to get through the entire PV industry chain. The groundbreaking of the Asia Silicon Industry Qinghai Project is a new force for Wuxi Suntech Power Co., Ltd. to further ensure the stable supply of silicon raw materials in the future.
The relatively stable supply of polysilicon is certainly a guarantee for the development of these leading companies. However, in the pyramid-type photovoltaic industry chain, the upper reaches of the high profit margins and technological command may be their real purpose.
The cross-industry investment has been divided into Tongwei Group, which is a leading company in the feed and clothing industry, and Jiangsu Sunshine Co., Ltd. This time, the gambling of polysilicon projects has caused reverie.
The entry of Aerospace, CSG, Jiangsu Glass, Jiangsu Shunda, Yunnan Aisin Silicon, Sichuan Chaolei, and Linghai Jinhua are all relying on their own part of the new energy industry as the basis for innovation and industrialization. The field has a share.
**Technical articles**
The supply bottleneck of polysilicon for new projects is mostly secondary smelting. The purification technology has a high threshold and large investment, and has long been in the hands of 10 factories in 7 companies in the United States, Japan, and Germany. At present, the most mature purification process is the Siemens process, but this method requires the maintenance of polysilicon to maintain a high temperature of 1100 degrees Celsius, consumes large amounts of electricity, and costs remain high.
The China Industry News reporter found that China plans to build new polysilicon projects mostly for the introduction of foreign (Russia) second-rate technology, which will certainly lay the hidden dangers for future product quality and market competition.
Among the numerous companies that have independently developed R&D, they only have R&S Semiconductor and Luoyang Silicon own proprietary purification technology. They achieved certain independent innovation on the basis of the early introduction of Siemens' improved technology from Russia, and gradually achieved a production capacity of 1,000 tons. China's polysilicon production from 60 tons in 2004 to 180 tons in 2005, and then to 300 tons in 2006, almost all attributed to the two companies. Perhaps their development, to a certain extent, can truly reflect the growth of China's photovoltaic industry.
The new technology deserves attention. Henan Xun Tianyu Technology Co., Ltd. is worthy of attention. The company's project uses the physical method purification technology independently developed by the Shanghai Institute of Technical Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. On July 27, 2007, the Shanghai Institute of Technical Physics announced that it has produced more than 99.9999% pure solar cell silicon products by physical purification. The power consumption and water consumption are only 1/3 and 1/10 of the “Siemens Chemical Method†respectively. .
In addition, fluidized bed method, direct smelting method, gas-liquid deposition method, and some amorphous silicon technologies (thin film batteries) have been gradually applied. It should not be overlooked that these relatively inexpensive new technologies will replace the existing technologies on a large scale, and some domestic high-cost manufacturers will no doubt bear the brunt of it.
**Product reviews**
The raw materials crisis is expected to ease the statistics and show that most new construction projects will be put into production from 2008 to 2009. If it is successfully put into production, it will certainly help alleviate the current global polysilicon raw material crisis.
However, it is foreseeable that the lifting of the crisis is limited to some dominant companies. In fact, the existing polysilicon expansion project has basically been locked by orders from downstream companies, while polysilicon manufacturers have only selected the most advantageous companies in the industry to sign their orders.
Moreover, relative to the total capacity of photovoltaic cells, the supply of polysilicon raw materials is still insufficient, and its spot market will remain high. In addition, if there are signs of a rapid decline, some previously announced expansion plans are likely to be cancelled or postponed, thereby supporting prices.
Therefore, weak PV companies still face enormous cost pressures. It is not difficult to predict that in the next few years, the photovoltaic industry will have a process of scouring the sand. The stronger the stronger, the weaker will be swallowed or eliminated.
The actual production capacity will drastically shrink. The excess planning does not equal the actual excess production capacity. According to statistics from the China Industry News reporter on these 14 companies, the total polysilicon production capacity in China will reach more than 67,260 tons before 2010. However, according to the results of the project feasibility statistics PV News, the results show that by 2010 China's polysilicon potential production capacity of 22,100 tons, the actual production capacity may be only 7,300 tons.
The reason is that China will hardly break through the technical barriers to polysilicon purification in the short term, and there will be relatively cheap polysilicon production technology to replace the Siemens law. Second, whether China has sufficient human resources supply is also questionable.
Therefore, only those projects that have a reliable source of technology or long-term technology accumulation will eventually be put into operation. Most of the projects with unclear sources of technology will die halfway, and they will even stay in the sketch stage forever. The situation of excess capacity is also unlikely to occur.