At the beginning of the new year, the price of oil exceeded 100. What does this price signal indicate? The continuous high oil price since last year has caused the downstream industries to suffer. Not only is the petroleum refining industry engaged in crude oil processing a serious loss, but the impact of high oil prices on various industries can also be described as uneven.
Some experts said that as the major oil importing country, China’s economy has become increasingly inescapably affected by the trend of international oil prices.
According to statistics from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, from January to November 2007, China’s foreign oil dependence reached 46.25%, compared with 43.23% in the same period of 2006. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, from January to November 2007, China's net import of crude oil was 14.71 million tons, an increase of 18.92 million tons over the same period of last year, an increase of 14.76% year-on-year. The net trade deficit caused by China’s net imports of crude oil reached US$70.1 billion, an increase of US$10.7 billion compared to the same period in 2006, an increase of 18% year-on-year.
Since oil is a basic energy product, the rise in international oil prices will have a certain impact on the ex-factory price (PPI) of industrial products. Taking into account the hysteresis and long-term characteristics of the prices of industrial products, in the long term, the continued rise in international energy prices will push China’s PPI higher and increase inflationary pressures.
National Bureau of Statistics figures show that in November 2007, China's PPI rose by 4.6% year-on-year. Among them, the purchase price of raw materials, fuel, and power rose by 6.3%. From January to November 2007, the PPI rose 2.9%, and the purchase price of raw materials, fuel, and power rose by 4.1%.
Industry experts analyzed that because oil is the raw material of most chemical products, rising oil prices will certainly bring about rising costs for the chemical industry. Some experts indicated that the prices of different products in the chemical industry are significantly different from those in the downstream. Organic chemical raw materials, chemical fertilizers, chemical fiber, plastic raw materials, etc., are passed down at a rapid rate and are large. Therefore, the downstream prices are more tolerable, and the plastic products are better. The prices of rubber products, rubber products, and pesticides are slow to pass downstream and their margins are small, so the downstream price is weak.
Some experts said that rising oil prices are beneficial to organic chemical raw materials, chemical fiber, plastic raw materials, and other enterprises, and they are unfavorable to enterprises such as plastic products, rubber products, and pesticides. Therefore, they should be differentiated and analyzed according to specific circumstances. Fine and daily-use chemicals are located at the end of the petrochemical industry chain, and the changes in oil prices are beyond their reach.
For potash fertilizers and other fertilizer products, a major impact of the rise in international oil prices is the rise in shipping costs. In addition, oil prices and natural gas prices have a linkage, which also caused the cost of products such as urea to climb.
In addition, the high international oil prices will undoubtedly cause great pressure on the adjustment of refined oil prices in China. The central bank issued its third quarter 2007 monetary policy report, which listed oil prices as a factor in the recent increase in domestic inflation risk.
On November 1, 2007, the state raised the price of refined oil, raising the price of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel by 500 yuan per ton. According to relevant officials of the National Development and Reform Commission, this is mainly to ease the contradiction between supply and demand caused by the increase in the price of domestic refined oil and crude oil. According to the report of the Central Bank, from the domestic perspective, rationalization of resource energy prices is an inevitable requirement to reasonably reflect comparative advantages and enhance the ability of economic balanced growth. However, resource and energy price reforms will increase the upward pressure on prices in the short term.
However, not all industries are pessimistic about this time. As an alternative to petroleum, alternative energy sources will open up vast market space after high oil prices. Alternative energy sources such as coal chemical industry will have great opportunities for development. In addition, not only the alternative energy itself, some related equipment manufacturing companies will also be stimulated by the favorable international oil prices.
In 2007, the oil price on the international market averaged US$72.3 per barrel, an increase of 9% compared to the average price of US$66.25 per barrel in 2006. This increase was the lowest in the past five years. The $100 per barrel is a psychological barrier. Breaking through this barrier will affect the international market's expectations for the trend of oil prices. The rise in international oil prices will have an inhibitory effect on the global economy and further increase the risk of global inflation.
Experts generally believe that the era of high oil prices has come. China, as a major oil consumer, and China’s oil and chemical industry achieve sustainable development, must accelerate economic restructuring, implement relevant measures for energy conservation and emission reduction, and accelerate the establishment of energy-saving industrial structures. Deal with high oil prices.
Some experts said that as the major oil importing country, China’s economy has become increasingly inescapably affected by the trend of international oil prices.
According to statistics from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, from January to November 2007, China’s foreign oil dependence reached 46.25%, compared with 43.23% in the same period of 2006. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, from January to November 2007, China's net import of crude oil was 14.71 million tons, an increase of 18.92 million tons over the same period of last year, an increase of 14.76% year-on-year. The net trade deficit caused by China’s net imports of crude oil reached US$70.1 billion, an increase of US$10.7 billion compared to the same period in 2006, an increase of 18% year-on-year.
Since oil is a basic energy product, the rise in international oil prices will have a certain impact on the ex-factory price (PPI) of industrial products. Taking into account the hysteresis and long-term characteristics of the prices of industrial products, in the long term, the continued rise in international energy prices will push China’s PPI higher and increase inflationary pressures.
National Bureau of Statistics figures show that in November 2007, China's PPI rose by 4.6% year-on-year. Among them, the purchase price of raw materials, fuel, and power rose by 6.3%. From January to November 2007, the PPI rose 2.9%, and the purchase price of raw materials, fuel, and power rose by 4.1%.
Industry experts analyzed that because oil is the raw material of most chemical products, rising oil prices will certainly bring about rising costs for the chemical industry. Some experts indicated that the prices of different products in the chemical industry are significantly different from those in the downstream. Organic chemical raw materials, chemical fertilizers, chemical fiber, plastic raw materials, etc., are passed down at a rapid rate and are large. Therefore, the downstream prices are more tolerable, and the plastic products are better. The prices of rubber products, rubber products, and pesticides are slow to pass downstream and their margins are small, so the downstream price is weak.
Some experts said that rising oil prices are beneficial to organic chemical raw materials, chemical fiber, plastic raw materials, and other enterprises, and they are unfavorable to enterprises such as plastic products, rubber products, and pesticides. Therefore, they should be differentiated and analyzed according to specific circumstances. Fine and daily-use chemicals are located at the end of the petrochemical industry chain, and the changes in oil prices are beyond their reach.
For potash fertilizers and other fertilizer products, a major impact of the rise in international oil prices is the rise in shipping costs. In addition, oil prices and natural gas prices have a linkage, which also caused the cost of products such as urea to climb.
In addition, the high international oil prices will undoubtedly cause great pressure on the adjustment of refined oil prices in China. The central bank issued its third quarter 2007 monetary policy report, which listed oil prices as a factor in the recent increase in domestic inflation risk.
On November 1, 2007, the state raised the price of refined oil, raising the price of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel by 500 yuan per ton. According to relevant officials of the National Development and Reform Commission, this is mainly to ease the contradiction between supply and demand caused by the increase in the price of domestic refined oil and crude oil. According to the report of the Central Bank, from the domestic perspective, rationalization of resource energy prices is an inevitable requirement to reasonably reflect comparative advantages and enhance the ability of economic balanced growth. However, resource and energy price reforms will increase the upward pressure on prices in the short term.
However, not all industries are pessimistic about this time. As an alternative to petroleum, alternative energy sources will open up vast market space after high oil prices. Alternative energy sources such as coal chemical industry will have great opportunities for development. In addition, not only the alternative energy itself, some related equipment manufacturing companies will also be stimulated by the favorable international oil prices.
In 2007, the oil price on the international market averaged US$72.3 per barrel, an increase of 9% compared to the average price of US$66.25 per barrel in 2006. This increase was the lowest in the past five years. The $100 per barrel is a psychological barrier. Breaking through this barrier will affect the international market's expectations for the trend of oil prices. The rise in international oil prices will have an inhibitory effect on the global economy and further increase the risk of global inflation.
Experts generally believe that the era of high oil prices has come. China, as a major oil consumer, and China’s oil and chemical industry achieve sustainable development, must accelerate economic restructuring, implement relevant measures for energy conservation and emission reduction, and accelerate the establishment of energy-saving industrial structures. Deal with high oil prices.
Belten Mechanical & Electrical Manufacture Co., Ltd , http://www.tz-generator.com