The main factors affecting the soda ash market in China.
Production capacity and production situation. China's soda ash is the world's largest producer and consumer. China's soda ash production capacity is 17 million tons, and its output is 15.9 million tons, accounting for 30% of world production. China's production capacity is currently equal to the total production in Europe. Higher than the United States 12 million tons of production capacity and 10 million tons of production. China's soda ash production plant operating rate remained at a high level of 93%. In 2006, the growth rate of soda ash in China was 11%. Domestic soda ash producers have good production conditions, the operating rate of equipment is at the best level, the product inventory rate is relatively low, and the production and sales rate remains at a high level. The market demand remains at a constant rising stage. As a basic chemical industry, soda ash will continue to maintain a good momentum of development in the impact of the rapid economic development in China and the global economy as a whole. The country and the United States are the largest soda ash exporters in the international market. About 10% of China's soda ash production depends on the international market, and 30%-40% of US soda ash production is exported to the international market. In 2006, an important reason for the improvement of China's soda ash market was the improvement and improvement of the international trade market. The increase in export volume plays an extremely important role in reducing the pressure on the domestic market. In 2006, the annual export of soda ash was 1.81 million tons, an increase of 4% year-on-year. The total amount of soda ash exports accounted for 11.4% of the total domestic soda ash. The domestic apparent consumption amounted to 1,770 tons for the year, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year. The soda ash in the United States is dominated by natural alkaloids. In 2006, due to the continuous increase in international crude oil prices, the soda ash production costs and logistics costs increased rapidly in the United States, making its export trade competitiveness in the Asian market significantly lower. This has created a favorable international trade environment for the export of soda ash in China. China's soda ash in the international market, especially in the Asian region, has a strong competitive advantage in the market, and this competitiveness is gradually increasing, so that China's soda ash in the international market share continues to increase. The increase in demand in the international market has effectively promoted the development of domestic soda ash industry. In 2007, the international crude oil market price will continue to remain at a high level of about 55 US dollars / ton, the international crude oil market prices are unlikely to drop significantly. High oil prices will provide a relatively good trade base and conditions for China's soda ash exports. The average annual export price of soda ash in 2006 was US$157.5/ton, a year-on-year increase of -3.1%. The decline in export prices has made soda ash exports more competitive.
The structure of China's soda ash industry. China's soda ash is mainly concentrated in coastal areas such as North China and East China. The production method consists of ammonia-alkali method, combined alkali method and natural alkali method. The proportion is roughly 60%, 36%, and 4%. In recent years, China has effectively adjusted the regional structure of the soda ash industry, and the soda ash industrial production facilities have gradually shifted to inland areas. Including the investment in the construction of a large number of large-scale soda ash production facilities in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China's soda ash industry will not only move to a new level, but also make the regional structure of products more rational, reduce product sales overlap, and increase the efficiency of resources, energy, and logistics. Utilization rate. It can be said that China's soda ash industry is one of the more stable and orderly industries in the basic chemical industry. The domestic market demand has an impact on the soda ash market. In 2006, the major downstream industries related to soda ash showed a good momentum of growth. Such as crude oil refining 6.4%, chemical industry 33.5%, flat glass 12.4%, daily glass 15.5%, papermaking 53.9%, textile industry 22%, alumina industry 53.9%, synthetic detergent 13.4%, chemical pesticides 21.9% and so on. The increase in demand for soda ash in the domestic market has tightened the supply of the market, especially the high domestic demand for crude oil, high growth in the real estate industry, petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and papermaking industries, and high input in infrastructure construction, which has strongly promoted soda ash production. Industry has further developed. China's economic growth in successive years has maintained a level above 10%, and 2006 will probably be the fastest year for GDP growth in China in recent years. In 2007, the country under the management of macroeconomic regulation of economic growth. The growth rate of some important industries such as capital construction, real estate, and building materials industry will moderately decline. All these will have a certain impact on the market demand for soda ash and behave in 2007, but due to the inertia of economic operation, this impact will not As for the impact.
The analysis of the trend of industrial development in the market outlook has entered into this reality. China has entered a new round of high-speed economic growth cycle. The rapid development of the downstream industry has strongly promoted the development of China's soda ash industry. China's soda supply exceeds demand. 10% of the annual output of soda ash depends on the digestion and absorption of the international market. In recent years, China has effectively optimized and adjusted the regional structure of the soda ash industry, and the soda ash industrial production unit has gradually shifted to the north China and northwest inland regions with energy advantages and resource advantages. The investment in the construction projects of a large number of large-scale soda ash production plants, including the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, has made the layout of the regional structure of soda ash products more reasonable in China. In 2007, China's soda ash production capacity will likely reach 20 million tons. Enterprises are bigger and stronger, form intensive management, increase production technology to reduce costs, strengthen industry management, make full use of the self-digestion capacity of the domestic market, seize international market opportunities, increase exports as much as possible, reduce domestic market pressure, is the domestic soda Industrial focus work.
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